Breeders’ Cup 2018 odds, picks and longshots: Handicapping Saturday’s Classic, Turf and Distaff

Two days of Breeders’ Cup races come to a climax with All the Grand Pooh-Bah of them the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

There are a number of story lines from the 2018 Classic, one involving the favorite, Accelerate. With a victory here, the John Sadler trainee could get Horse of the Year consideration over Justify. It might take a lot to select Accelerate over a Triple Crown winner, but the better the performance, the better the chance.
Another thing of noteworthiness from the Classic is a horse named Discreet Lover. Owned and trained by Uriah St. Lewis Jr., this Parx-based 5-year old was purchased for a mere $10,000 and is now running in a $6 million rush. Discreet Lover won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont in September and boasts over $1.3 million in earnings. We should all acknowledge Uriah for a fantastic job conditioning this horse and wish him luck.
Here are odds and selections for three races on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card the Distaff, the Turf, and Needless to Say, the Classic.
Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Distaff chances and analysis
Purse: $2 million
For Fillies And Mares 3 years old and upward Distance: 1-1/8 miles on the dirt
Post time: 4:16 p.m. ET
MOMOMOY GIRL (2/1 odds) looks to make amends from her final outing, where she crossed the cable by a neck but had been disqualified, also MIDNIGHT BISOU (6/1) was given the win. If, it were not for this disqualification and a beat with a throat last year, this girl would be a ideal 10-for-10. In what may be among the most finely scripted races on the 2018 Breeders’ Cup card, Monomy Girl also takes on last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner, ABEL TASMAN (7/2).
Abel Tasman is coming off a dismal and puzzling fifth-place finish in the Sep. 30 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita. Before that inadequate attempt, she rattled off two Grade 1 wins while submitting two Beyer Speed amounts of over 100. If she shows with her A-game now, she’ll be one tough cookie.
WONDOR GADOT (15/1) came in a half-length of Monomoy Girl the previous time the two met at Churchill, but her last two races weren’t great in any way, and she seems from shape.
BLUE PRIZE (10/1) is coming off three consecutive graded stakes wins and seems in good form.
WOW CAT (8/1) showed improvement while winning the Beldame last time out but finished a distant third to Abel Tasman before in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga.
CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS (12/1) ran second to Blue Prize in their last two encounters missing by three-quarters of a length and a nose. If she can stay straight and unbothered in the stretch, then she is dangerous here.
VALE DORI (12/1) was a smooth winner of this Zenyatta Stakes. She is a person that comes into this race in good shape and with confidence.
Rounding out the field are LA FORCE (20/1), that comes off three-straight second place finishes in Grade 1 events; MOPOTISM (30/1), who’s been off form; and VERVE’S TALE (30/1), who likes to strike the plank when he could but seldom wins.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff chooses No. 2 ABEL TASMAN (7/2): Fires big Saturday
No. 11 MONOMOY GIRL (2/1): Will be right there
No. 8 VALE DORI (12/1): She attracts it today No. 7 MIDNIGHT BISOU (6/1): One tough lady Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Turf chances and analysis
Purse: $4 million
For 3-year olds and up Distance: 1-1/2 Miles on the turf
Post Time: 4:56 p.m. ET
ENABLE (1/1 chances ) is the even-money morning-line preferred to dollar history and become the first horse to win the Arc de Triomphe and the Breeders’ Cup Turf in the exact same year. This woman is a winner of nine of 10 career starts and also her career worst is a third, only 2-1/2 lengths from the winner along with a perfect record. If she traveled okay and does not head the Churchill surface, she could have a very easy day. Europeans fare well in this particular race, and this looks to be the case this season again.
WALDGEIST (9/2), the next betting favorite from the morning-line odds, won four-straight Group 1 races in France before finishing fourth in The Arc. He ought to be prepared to roll up here.
ROBERT BRUCE (10/1) looked decent winning the Arlington Million in August and came back a month ago to run a game second in a Grade 1 at Belmont.
TALASMANIC (12/1) won this race last season but took a beating in the recent Arc by 11 lengths.
CHANNEL MAKER (12/1) scored nicely by 4??1/2 lengths in the Joe Hirsh Turf Classic on Sept. 29. He also posted a 108 Beyer in that race, and that puts him in the mix here.
MAGICAL (10/1) won a Group 1 at Ascot on Oct. 20 and conducted in The Arc two weeks before that. She could come into this race a bit tired.
GLORIOUS EMPIRE (12/1) won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga in August, as well as a Grade 2 prior to that. This horse has put it together in his past few starts.
SADLER’S JOY (30/1) ran fourth in this race last year but is only 1-for-7 this season and hasn’t won since March.
HI HAPPY (20/1) missed by a neck in the Knickerbocker in Belmont, but his 2 attempts before that weren’t great, and he’s in pretty deep .
ARKLOW (30/1) ran a good moment in the Sycamore at Keeneland on Oct. 18, but that area was fairly weak and he resembles another who’s overmatched.
LIAM THE CHARMER (30/1) just barely prevailed his past two wins in California, but his foes were not quite as classy as these horses.
HUNTING HORN (30/1) completed a dismal 16th at The Arc, and he’ll have a tough time with this group today.
The field is rounded out by QUARTETO de CORDAS (30/1), that hasn’t raced outside Brazil and wasn’t even that great there.
Breeders’ Cup Turf picks No. Two ENABLE (1/1 odds): Makes background now No. 3 CHANNEL MAKER (12/1): is in winning manner No. 12 WALDGEIST (9/2): Will be around at the wire No. 4 ROBERT BRUCE (10/1): Could wake up here
Longshot using a shot: CHANNEL MAKER (12/1 odds)
On paper, it is nearly impossible to go against Enable in this particular race. However, if she doesn’t appear with her best, Channel Maker will be there to pounce. I see this horse as a very clear and strong second-place finisher, also we all ought to get at least 10/1 odds on him. Play him under Permit in your exotic stakes.
Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Classic odds and analysis
Purse: $6 Million
For 3-year olds and upward Distance: 1??1/4 miles
Post Time: 5:44 p.m. ET
ACCELERATE (5/2 chances ) is a neck from six wins in a row and contains four Grade 1 victories this year. This fellow was off the board only twice in 21 career starts and got a 115 Beyer Speed Figure two begins back from the Pacific Classic. He’s the deserving favourite and lots scary, if you don’t have him.
WEST COAST (5/1) ran a fantastic second to Accelerate off a six-month layoff and has never been off the board in 12 starts. He is filled out, toned up, and prepared and prepared for a great effort.
McKINZIE (6/1): Missed a lot of the year because of injury but came back to score sweetly in the Pennsylvania Derby. He is the finest of this three-year-olds in here.
MIND YOUR BISCUITS (6/1): Has hit the board in final seven starts and is quite capable of doing this today, but I don’t see him winning.
CATHOLIC BOY (8/1): Gunning for four in a row, this man’s a proven winner on dirt and turf. His very last time out was a triumph in the Travers Stakes by four lengths — he’s a player.
YOSHIDA (10/1): Last excursion proved to be a wonderful run in the Woodward in Saratoga, and he came home by 2 lengths in a nice and complete field. He can hit the board here.
THUNDER SNOW (12/1): He just missed in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at a good effort in September. But his one beginning at Churchill wasn’t a great one — bucking and rearing at the start of this 2017 Derby. Thunder has made more than $8.5 million, and if he behaves himself, he could be a variable.
MENDELSSOHN (12/1): Although he’s been in the search in his last few races, he hasn’t won since March and that was in Meydan. Passing.
ROARING LION (20/1) Talented 3-year older has cranked off four Group 1 wins in a row, but he has never run in the United States nor on dirt. Mixed feelings.
PAVEL (20/1): He ran second to Accelerate in the Pacific Classic, but 12??1/2 lengths behind. Passing.
DISCREET LOVER (20/1): Owned and trained by Uriah St. Lewis Jr., this horse looked good winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but I don’t believe he receives a winning trip here.
AXELROD (30/1): A good second in the Pennsylvania Derby and has won a few events that are graded, but isn’t quickly or classy enough to compete with these.
LONE SAILOR (30/1): He also won a Grade 3 at Remington Park on Sept. 30, his sole win in 11 starts. No thanks.
GUNNEVERA (20/1): He conducted a decent second in the Woodward in his last outing and this race fits his running style, but others are better.
Breeders’ Cup Classic selections No. 7 WEST COAST 5/1: Holds Accelerate at bay
No. 14 ACCELERATE 5/2: Set for a good effort No. 10 YOSHIDA 10/1: Nice win in The Woodward
No. 6 McKINZIE 6/1: Greatest of the 3-year olds

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Jared Yeo