The Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series is at Martinsville Speedway this weekend, and with Kyle Busch winning at Phoenix and Fontana over the previous two weeks, he has been set up as a heavy favorite for the STP 500 in”The Paperclip”–and for good reason: Rowdy has not finished outside the top 5 at this track because the 2014 season, and he has led a joint 582 laps over the last four (and 937 over the previous six). Of course, when you have the favorite in +150 to win, that means there’s some fantastic value in gambling others in case that man has issues during the race.

Last weekend at Auto Club Speedway my favorite bets went 2-0, bringing my yearly record to 5-3. I’d Brad Keselowski to finish top 3, and his afternoon went south , so that has been screwed from the start.

My Bets for Martinsville
Martin Truex, Jr.. Sirius XM Paint Scheme Martinsville 2019
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Pictures
Martin Truex, Jr.. Top 3 End (+200) — The races in Martinsville are usually predictable: we see the same faces up front again and again, and we do not see Martin Truex, Jr. in victory lane. Where we do find him, though, is close enough to acquire if something goes wrong with the chief. Over the previous 3 races in”The Paperclip,” Truex has posted finishes of 3rd, 4th, and 2nd, and even though he begins back in 8th for the STP 500, he has one hell of a race car under him to get to the front. The 19 Toyota rated #1 at 10-, 15-, 20-, and 30-lap average during the final practice session here on Saturday, and there is going to be lots of long runs throughout the race. Truex will really shine during those. If you look at this week’s rankings by the Fantasy Racing On line algorithm, Truex is a very close 4th supporting Logano, and if you look at current trends by pole sitters in the spring Martinsville race, then I would give that advantage to Truex.

Chris Buescher (+105) over Daniel Hemric — I’m honestly surprised Chris Buescher is not getting more adore this weekend. This #37 team hasn’t finished worse than 18th since the Daytona 500, and they’ve got a good starting place for the current STP 500 (12th). Meanwhile, Hemric will begin from back in 28th, and has a tendency to hit the wall more frequently than not. We’ve got 500 laps to race in the present STP 500, and to be honest, I am not sure he ends. On the other hand, Buescher has completed 13th, 23rd, 21st, and 11th in his last four Martinsville starts, and he’s running better than he has probably ever ran. This one is really a no brainer for me.

Martinsville Race Day Betting Odds for your STP 500
Kyle Busch 2.25/1

Martin Truex, Jr. 4.5/1

Brad Keselowski 5/1
Joey Logano 5/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Ryan Blaney 15/1
Aric Almirola 15/1
Chase Elliott 25/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Jimmie Johnson 40/1
Kyle Larson 50/1
Erik Jones 60/1
Austin Dillon 80/1
Alex Bowman 80/1
Daniel Surez 80/1
Ryan Newman 80/1
Field 32/1

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